The North Carolina Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

A Mathematical Investigation of Vaccination Strategies to Prevent a Measles Epidemic

Raymond Kenneth Smith, Aleah Archibald, Elijah MacCarthy, Liping Liu, Nicholas S Luke


The purpose of this project is to quantitatively investigate vaccination strategies to prevent measles epidemics. A disease model which incorporates susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered populations (SVIR) is used to investigate the process of how an epidemic of measles can spread within a closed population where a portion of the population has been vaccinated. The model is used to predict the number of infections and resulting reproductive number for the measles based on a variety of initial vaccination levels.  The model is further used to investigate the concept of herd immunity, which states that if a certain percentage of the population is vaccinated then it will provide protection for the entire population.  Results generated from these modeling efforts suggest that approximately 95\% of the population should be vaccinated against the measles in order to establish a herd immunity.


SVIR Model; Measles

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